EU 2028

Bilateral III – vote informedly

PRISMA Voting Analysis:Bilateral III

Our analysis system PRISMA subjected the Bilaterals III to a comprehensive forecast analysis. PRISMA evaluates 30 demographic segments of the Swiss population according to the principle of consensus:
Not “Who is for it?” is measured, but rather “How big is the resistance?” — per segment, per language region, taking into account eight emotional drivers (fear, home, justice, care, costs, elite anger, hope, trust).

This model predicts Swiss referendums with an accuracy rate of over 86% — validated on 397 votes from 1980 to 2026.

Bilateral III’s full analysis includes detailed segment assessments, language region dynamics, emotional profiles and a sound forecast. It is aimed at parliamentarians, campaign managers and strategists who want to understand where the resistance lies – and why.

Interested in the analysis? Contact us: Analyse@SVFAB.ch. 

Referendum no earlier than 2028

What do Bilaterals III really mean – for the baker, the farmer, the cross-border commuter, the pensioner? We have processed the answers: in two books, a data-supported voting analysis and the forecast model that predicts Swiss referendums with a hit rate of over 86%.

Two books – two perspectives

«Who will decide for Switzerland?»

The non-fiction book for everyone who wants to know exactly. In 25 chapters – one for each larger group in Switzerland – David Schläpfer shows what Bilateral III means in concrete terms. The analytical backbone: the distance-cost function, proven in 18 empirical cases. Decisions become more expensive and occur more slowly the further away they are – with a sharp bend in the transition from the federal government to Brussels. Factually, with numbers, without party colors.

«Who has the last word?» (Stein & Talburg)

Same topic, told completely differently. Two voices – Stein – the village with 3,800 inhabitants (represents Switzerland) and Talberg (the town – stands for the EU) – discuss the Bilaterals III using six specific people: the baker Franziska, the dairy farmer Hans, the physio student Lena, the pensioner Walter, the garage owner Kurt and the electrician Pietro. Also available as an audio book.

Both books will be published by Barfuss Verlag in the next few days.

Why we do this

The SVFAB has been analyzing SRG’s reporting for years – systematically, across thousands of programs, using 16 scientifically based criteria. With PRISMA we bring the same thoroughness to referendums: data-driven, independent, verifiable.

If you want to vote in an informed manner, you need more than headlines. He needs tools.